Measured, Not Believed ← services
About

Who’s behind the audits

I’m Ilpo Väätäinen. I run an independent eval-integrity practice: I audit the numbers AI teams are about to stake their credibility on, and tell them which ones survive a second look. This page exists so you can decide whether to trust that — and my whole argument is that you shouldn’t have to.

How I got here

I didn’t come to this from a lab. I came to it from losing an argument with reality. I built a trading system, validated it on a careful backtest, and believed the backtest. Then I took it live — and the single cheapest measurement in the whole pipeline, a fourteen-cent order resting in a real order book, told me the backtest had been lying. Not wrong by a rounding error; wrong about the thing that mattered. The edge the numbers promised wasn’t there once real fees and a real queue had their say.

That gap — between a number that passes every test you thought to run and a number that’s actually true — turned out to be the same gap that sits under half the AI benchmark claims I read. So I started doing to eval numbers what the live market had done to my backtest: reproduce them, control them, and go measure the thing the summary skipped.

What I do now

Independent, reproducible audits of AI evaluation results — benchmark leaderboards, LLM-as-judge results, scaling-law claims. Before a launch, a paper, or a fundraise, I check whether the headline number holds, and hand back a plain-English report: certified, or revised, with the one-line statistical fix. I also wrote the book behind the practice, Measured, Not Believed, and maintain the open-source evalgate checks so anyone can run the cheap version themselves.

Why you don’t have to take my word for it

Trust in this work isn’t a credential — it’s reproducibility. Three principles keep me honest, and they’re the ones I’d want applied to my own numbers:

The best proof is public. Three audits, computed on the papers’ own released data, reproducing exactly:

This is an independent practice, not a big firm — which is the point. You get the person who does the work, a reproducible method instead of a brand, and an audit that’s as willing to clear your number as to catch it.

Work with me

Send me the number you’re least sure about.

I’ll tell you whether it holds — reproducibly, before anyone else looks.